MCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCO - Moody's Corporation
$438.78
2.53 (0.58%)
▲
5d:
+2.51%
30d:
-5.5%
90d:
-14.92%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
25d
Smart Money Distribution
MCO is up 6.7% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $410 2026-04-17 with 16 OI. Put ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCO appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.8% annual earnings decline despite 58% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCO appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.8% annual earnings decline despite 58% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$683.16
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$424.19
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCO is currently trading at $438.78, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $431.68 to $465.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.4) compared to its historical average (28.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 57.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $446.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $546.70 (+24.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $446.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $546.70 (+24.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$431.68 -
$465.12
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.6% below Wall St target ($546.70)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$431.68 -
$465.12
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$422.20
Resistance Level
$446.40
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.45
Wall Street Target
$546.70
(+24.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
57.6%
Profit Margin
31.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.5 vs 28.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$413.33
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$389.36
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$366.77
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→28)
$438.02
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.4, Growth: 11.8%)
$612.60
(+40%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.8%)
$583.97
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 11.8%)
$496.38
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.66
Bull Case
$655.69
(+49%)
Analyst growth 37.0%, PE expands to 35.0
Base Case
$596.08
(+35%)
Market implied 37.0%, PE stable at 31.9
Bear Case
$295.88
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.4 to 28.0
Stabilization Target:
$524.01
(+19.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert Fauber
SELL
5213 shares
2026-03-03
Richard G Steele
SELL
375 shares
2026-03-03
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
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Advanced MCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCO price and gamma walls.
