MCRI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCRI - Monarch Casino & Resort Inc
$117.96
1.08 (0.92%)
▲
5d:
-0.55%
30d:
+20.43%
90d:
+26.39%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$130.56
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCRI is currently trading at $117.96, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $102.21 to $119.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.3) is in line with its historical norms (16.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $120.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $120.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$102.21 -
$119.92
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($113.17)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$102.21 -
$119.92
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$113.84
Resistance Level
$120.91
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.32
Wall Street Target
$113.17
(-4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.8%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
17.3 vs 16.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$119.97
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$122.00
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$124.08
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$118.19
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 2.1%)
$159.96
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 2.1%)
$125.54
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 2.1%)
$106.71
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.90
Bull Case
$148.40
(+26%)
Analyst growth 15.4%, PE expands to 21.8
Base Case
$134.91
(+14%)
Market implied 15.4%, PE stable at 19.8
Bear Case
$79.48
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Farahi
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-16
John Farahi
SELL
1000 shares
2026-03-10
John Farahi
SELL
1000 shares
2025-12-17
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