MCRI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCRI - Monarch Casino & Resort Inc
$129.94
-0.15 (-0.12%)
▼
5d:
-0.54%
30d:
+8.76%
90d:
+34.75%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 20, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCRI is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MCRI is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$133.73
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$83.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCRI is currently trading at $129.94, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $122.17 to $130.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.1) compared to its historical average (16.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $126.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $113.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $126.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $113.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$122.17 -
$130.98
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 12.7% above Wall St target ($113.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$122.17 -
$130.98
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.66
Resistance Level
$126.05
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.08
Wall Street Target
$113.50
(-12.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.8%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.2% premium
PE vs Historical
19.1 vs 16.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$135.40
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$141.08
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$147.01
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$130.21
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 2.1%)
$157.86
(+22%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.1, Growth: 2.1%)
$138.30
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: 2.1%)
$117.55
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.90
Bull Case
$165.17
(+27%)
Analyst growth 15.4%, PE expands to 24.3
Base Case
$150.16
(+16%)
Market implied 15.4%, PE stable at 22.1
Bear Case
$88.46
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 05, 2026 5:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Farahi
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-16
John Farahi
SELL
1000 shares
2026-03-10
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