MCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCY - Mercury General Corp.
$87.46
-0.37 (-0.42%)
▼
5d:
-1.29%
30d:
-4.5%
90d:
-7.03%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Get Alerted When MCY Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.23
Based on -3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.85
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCY is currently trading at $87.46, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.74 to $90.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $85.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.00 (+25.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCY is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $85.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.00 (+25.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$86.74 -
$90.66
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
10th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 10th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.2% below Wall St target ($110.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$86.74 -
$90.66
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.25
(4.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$85.35
Resistance Level
$92.11
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.98
Wall Street Target
$110.00
(+25.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.9%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 10.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$88.01
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$88.18
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$88.36
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$87.72
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -11.1%)
$130.35
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: -11.1%)
$64.03
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: -11.1%)
$54.42
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.77
Bull Case
$78.21
(-11%)
Analyst growth -18.1%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$71.10
(-19%)
Market implied -18.1%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$59.04
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
ALL
The Allstate Corporation |
STRONG BUY
20 analysts |
$240 | 60 HOLD |
|
TRV
The Travelers Companies … |
HOLD
23 analysts |
$303 | 58 HOLD |
|
CB
Chubb Ltd |
HOLD
22 analysts |
$338 | 59 HOLD |
|
PGR
Progressive Corp |
BUY
19 analysts |
$233 | 56 HOLD |
|
HIG
Hartford Financial Servi… |
BUY
19 analysts |
$144 | 53 HOLD |
