MDGL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MDGL - Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock

PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
$529.84
6.37 (1.22%) β–²
5d: +14.7%
30d: +24.42%
90d: -9.23%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation

MDGL is down 8.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $600 2026-04-17 with 233 OI. Call ratio: 98% View Scanner →

Strength: 9.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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πŸ’‘
Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: MDGL is 13.6% above fair value ($466.23). Market expects -35.6% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$448.17
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$278.28
Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MDGL is currently trading at $529.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $425.60 to $466.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 41.4) compared to its historical average (155.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 35.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MDGL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $437.05, while resistance sits at $572.20.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $668.57 (+26.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Fair Price Range $425.60 - $466.23
Company Quality Score 63/100 (BUY)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 41.4%

Protect Your Profits

MDGL is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+13.6% above fair value)
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 26.2% below Wall St target ($668.57)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $425.60 - $466.23
Current vs Fair Value EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $437.05
Resistance Level $572.20
Current Trend Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of Apr 1, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 41.41
Wall Street Target $668.57 (+26.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 210.8%
Profit Margin -30.1%
Valuation Discount vs History -35.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical 41.4 vs 155.2 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -35.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $476.86 (-10%)
2-Year Target $429.17 (-19%)
3-Year Target $386.25 (-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 41β†’155) $1447.52 (+173%)
πŸ’‘ Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 41.4 to 155.2
Stabilization Target: $1985.63 (+274.8%)
PE Expansion Potential: +274.8%
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Last updated: April 02, 2026 7:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:22 AM
πŸ”₯ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mardi Dier SELL 1982 shares 2026-03-06
Carole Huntsman SELL 419 shares 2026-03-06
William John Sibold SELL 1663 shares 2026-03-06

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Advanced MDGL Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MDGL price and gamma walls.

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