MEDP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MEDP - Medpace Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$415.27
-3.90 (-0.93%)
▼
5d:
-2.06%
30d:
-19.47%
90d:
-2.98%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
MEDP is up 3.2% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $400 2026-06-18 with 98 OI. Put ratio: 64% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MEDP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MEDP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$632.40
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$392.67
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MEDP is currently trading at $415.27, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $406.54 to $499.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.4) compared to its historical average (28.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEDP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $407.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEDP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $407.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$406.54 -
$499.36
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($442.83)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$406.54 -
$499.36
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$21.12
(5.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$407.69
Resistance Level
$435.15
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.37
Wall Street Target
$442.83
(+6.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.6%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 28.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$382.46
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$352.25
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$324.42
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→29)
$414.73
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.8%)
$534.43
(+29%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.8%)
$527.20
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 8.8%)
$448.12
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.89
Bull Case
$539.66
(+30%)
Analyst growth 16.8%, PE expands to 29.1
Base Case
$490.60
(+18%)
Market implied 16.8%, PE stable at 26.4
Bear Case
$285.59
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.4 to 28.6
Stabilization Target:
$530.87
(+27.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MEDP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jesse J Geiger
SELL
31707 shares
2026-03-17
David Taylor
BUY
2026-02-26
David Taylor
BUY
2026-01-29
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Advanced MEDP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MEDP price and gamma walls.
