MFA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFA - MFA Financial, Inc
$9.64
-0.50 (-4.93%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
17d
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1 traders called MFA this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MFA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MFA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.79
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.66
17.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFA is currently trading at $9.64, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.54 to $9.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.55 (+43.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.55 (+43.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$9.54 -
$9.97
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 43.5% below Wall St target ($14.55)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.8% growth with -6.1% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.54 -
$9.97
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.65
Resistance Level
$10.19
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.57
Wall Street Target
$14.55
(+43.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.4%
Profit Margin
46.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 7.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.32
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$10.51
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$10.70
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.18
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 32.4%)
$69.29
(+583%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 32.4%)
$23.52
(+132%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 32.4%)
$19.99
(+97%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.86
Bull Case
$17.12
(+78%)
Analyst growth 55.8%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$15.56
(+61%)
Market implied 55.8%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$6.79
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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