MGEE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGEE - MGE Energy Inc
$73.65
-1.00 (-1.34%)
▼
5d:
-8.62%
30d:
-9.19%
90d:
-7.45%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MGEE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MGEE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.56
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGEE is currently trading at $73.65, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.67 to $80.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.4) compared to its historical average (19.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $73.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $73.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$77.67 -
$80.71
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($78.50)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$77.67 -
$80.71
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.00
Resistance Level
$81.99
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.35
Wall Street Target
$78.50
(+6.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 19.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.63
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$67.73
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$64.96
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→20)
$73.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 7.5%)
$115.60
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 7.5%)
$91.41
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 7.5%)
$77.70
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.90
Bull Case
$89.38
(+21%)
Analyst growth 8.8%, PE expands to 21.1
Base Case
$81.25
(+10%)
Market implied 8.8%, PE stable at 19.1
Bear Case
$50.76
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.3 to 19.7
Stabilization Target:
$83.63
(+13.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 08, 2026 8:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGEE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James G Berbee
BUY
373 shares
2026-03-11
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