MGEE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGEE - MGE Energy Inc
$84.23
3.12 (3.85%)
▲
5d:
+6.82%
30d:
+13.21%
90d:
+8.39%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MGEE is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MGEE is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$102.77
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGEE is currently trading at $84.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.54 to $79.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.2) is in line with its historical norms (19.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: MGEE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGEE is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: MGEE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$74.54 -
$79.65
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.8% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($77.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$74.54 -
$79.65
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.16
Resistance Level
$78.48
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.19
Wall Street Target
$77.25
(-8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.49
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$86.78
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$88.08
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$84.21
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.0%)
$108.14
(+28%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.0%)
$100.23
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 6.0%)
$85.19
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.90
Bull Case
$95.45
(+13%)
Analyst growth 7.0%, PE expands to 22.9
Base Case
$86.78
(+3%)
Market implied 7.0%, PE stable at 20.8
Bear Case
$55.15
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 3:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGEE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James G Berbee
BUY
373 shares
2026-03-11
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