MMSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MMSI - Merit Medical Systems Inc
$61.36
-1.20 (-1.92%)
▼
5d:
+0.15%
30d:
-12.47%
90d:
-24.86%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MMSI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.8% annual earnings decline despite 39% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MMSI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.8% annual earnings decline despite 39% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$108.33
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.26
8.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MMSI is currently trading at $61.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.10 to $69.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.9) compared to its historical average (18.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 38.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $59.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.64 (+47.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $59.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.64 (+47.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$62.10 -
$69.69
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.7% below Wall St target ($90.64)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.10 -
$69.69
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.74
Resistance Level
$64.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.93
Wall Street Target
$90.64
(+47.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.8%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 18.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.96
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$51.04
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$46.54
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→18)
$61.15
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.2%)
$123.23
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: 8.2%)
$77.78
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 8.2%)
$66.11
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.32
Bull Case
$130.66
(+113%)
Analyst growth 89.9%, PE expands to 29.7
Base Case
$118.78
(+94%)
Market implied 89.9%, PE stable at 27.0
Bear Case
$42.54
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.9 to 18.3
Stabilization Target:
$80.61
(+31.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 3:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MMSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Fred P Lampropoulos
SELL
10000 shares
2025-11-25
Fred P Lampropoulos
SELL
25000 shares
2025-11-21
Fred P Lampropoulos
SELL
20000 shares
2025-11-20
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