MMSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MMSI - Merit Medical Systems Inc
$71.09
1.64 (2.36%)
▲
5d:
+0.37%
30d:
+16.75%
90d:
+4.19%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MMSI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MMSI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$103.54
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MMSI is currently trading at $71.09, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.73 to $68.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.2) is in line with its historical norms (17.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 38.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $72.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MMSI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.55 (+26.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $72.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MMSI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.55 (+26.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$62.73 -
$68.07
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.0% below Wall St target ($89.55)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.73 -
$68.07
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.50
Resistance Level
$72.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.16
Wall Street Target
$89.55
(+26.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.8%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 17.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$69.10
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$67.16
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$65.28
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$71.08
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.0%)
$120.77
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 8.0%)
$89.63
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 8.0%)
$76.18
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.32
Bull Case
$144.82
(+104%)
Analyst growth 89.6%, PE expands to 32.9
Base Case
$131.66
(+85%)
Market implied 89.6%, PE stable at 29.9
Bear Case
$47.23
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.2 to 17.6
Stabilization Target:
$77.41
(+8.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MMSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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