MNSO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MNSO - MINISO Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares, each representing four Ordinary Shares
$18.46
-0.43 (-2.28%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MNSO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MNSO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.62
Based on 13.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.74
18.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MNSO is currently trading at $18.46, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.99 to $19.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.6) is in line with its historical norms (1.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MNSO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MNSO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (26th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.29 (+44.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MNSO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MNSO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (26th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.29 (+44.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$18.99 -
$19.88
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
26th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MNSO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 26th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.5% below Wall St target ($27.29)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.0% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.99 -
$19.88
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.07
(5.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.60
Resistance Level
$20.18
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.65
Wall Street Target
$27.29
(+44.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-30.8%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.7 vs 1.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.66
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$18.44
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$18.22
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
$18.75
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 23.4%)
$478.91
(+2435%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.7, Growth: 23.4%)
$35.46
(+88%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.4, Growth: 23.4%)
$30.14
(+60%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.00
Bull Case
$41.29
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 20.7
Base Case
$37.54
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.8
Bear Case
$12.76
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.7 to 1.7
Stabilization Target:
$19.45
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MNSO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MNSO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MNSO price and gamma walls.
