MRCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRCY - Mercury Systems Inc.
$93.88
-4.41 (-4.49%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MRCY trades at premium valuation expecting 6.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MRCY trades at premium valuation expecting 6.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.39
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.57
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRCY is currently trading at $93.88, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.20 to $100.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 65.2) compared to its historical average (53.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRCY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $95.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRCY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $95.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$79.20 -
$100.97
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MRCY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.5%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($90.88)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.9% growth with 15.4% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.2% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$79.20 -
$100.97
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.66
(7.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$95.50
Resistance Level
$103.84
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
65.20
Wall Street Target
$90.88
(-7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.7%
Profit Margin
-3.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.9% premium
PE vs Historical
65.2 vs 53.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$105.07
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$112.32
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$120.07
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 65→53)
PE COMPRESSION
$98.34
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 65.2, Growth: 48.3%)
$320.41
(+226%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 48.3%)
$109.59
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 48.3%)
$93.15
(-5%)
Last updated: January 31, 2026 6:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Douglas Munro
SELL
67 shares
2025-09-16
Steven Ratner
SELL
7000 shares
2025-08-20
David E Farnsworth
SELL
7572 shares
2025-08-19
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Advanced MRCY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MRCY price and gamma walls.
