MRP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRP - Millrose Properties, Inc.
$29.80
0.10 (0.34%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MRP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MRP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.03
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.65
18.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRP is currently trading at $29.80, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.46 to $30.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MRP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.60 (+29.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MRP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.60 (+29.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$29.46 -
$30.64
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MRP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.5% below Wall St target ($38.60)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$29.46 -
$30.64
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.28
Resistance Level
$31.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.54
Wall Street Target
$38.60
(+29.5%)
Profit Margin
52.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.68
(0%)
2-Year Target
$29.56
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$29.44
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$29.95
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 28.6%)
$148.21
(+397%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 28.6%)
$63.38
(+113%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 28.6%)
$53.87
(+81%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.31
Bull Case
$65.03
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.8
Base Case
$59.12
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.6
Bear Case
$20.10
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$30.31
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 3:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MRP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MRP price and gamma walls.
