MRP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRP - Millrose Properties, Inc.
$28.00
0.72 (2.64%)
▲
5d:
-2.64%
30d:
-9.68%
90d:
-6.35%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MRP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MRP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.08
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.68
23.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRP is currently trading at $28.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.51 to $30.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.00, while resistance sits at $29.83.
Market Sentiment: MRP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.60 (+37.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.00, while resistance sits at $29.83.
Market Sentiment: MRP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.60 (+37.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$28.51 -
$30.77
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.9% below Wall St target ($38.60)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$28.51 -
$30.77
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.00
Resistance Level
$29.83
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.86
Wall Street Target
$38.60
(+37.9%)
Profit Margin
67.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.24
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$26.51
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$25.79
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$27.94
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 63.7%)
$71.98
(+157%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 63.7%)
$28.54
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 63.7%)
$24.26
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.44
Bull Case
$40.24
(+41%)
Analyst growth 29.5%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$36.59
(+28%)
Market implied 29.5%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$19.21
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$30.34
(+8.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 11:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Matthew B Gorson
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-05
Carlos A Migoya
BUY
1000 shares
2025-11-12
Rachel Presa
BUY
476 shares
2025-10-30
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