MAA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAA - Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.
$127.23
-2.11 (-1.63%)
▼
5d:
-2.4%
30d:
+2.45%
90d:
-4.65%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
MAA is up 4.1% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $135 2026-06-18 with 326 OI. Put ratio: 75% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MAA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MAA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.66
Based on 0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAA is currently trading at $127.23, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $125.18 to $129.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 38.5) is in line with its historical norms (37.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $126.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $141.69 (+11.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $126.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $141.69 (+11.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$125.18 -
$129.59
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
87.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($141.69)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.8% growth with 0.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$125.18 -
$129.59
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.44
(3.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$126.90
Resistance Level
$132.67
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
38.53
Wall Street Target
$141.69
(+11.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-31.5%
Profit Margin
17.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
38.5 vs 37.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$128.25
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$129.27
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$130.31
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39→38)
PE COMPRESSION
$127.16
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 38.5, Growth: -3.4%)
$114.52
(+-10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: -3.4%)
$65.51
(-49%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: -3.4%)
$55.68
(-56%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (39x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.30
Bull Case
$141.61
(+11%)
Analyst growth 0.1%, PE expands to 42.9
Base Case
$128.74
(+1%)
Market implied 0.1%, PE stable at 39.0
Bear Case
$87.49
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 11:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amber Fairbanks
SELL
711 shares
2026-04-06
Aubrey Clay Holder
SELL
145 shares
2026-04-06
Timothy Argo
SELL
183 shares
2026-04-06
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Advanced MAA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MAA price and gamma walls.
