MAA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAA - Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.
$129.31
-1.05 (-0.81%)
▼
5d:
+0.58%
30d:
+2.94%
90d:
-2.13%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
MAA is up 4.1% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $135 2026-06-18 with 326 OI. Put ratio: 75% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.66
Based on 0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAA is currently trading at $129.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $124.52 to $129.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 39.2) is in line with its historical norms (37.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $132.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MAA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $132.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MAA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$124.52 -
$129.26
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($141.52)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.4% growth with 0.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$124.52 -
$129.26
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.52
(3.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$125.20
Resistance Level
$132.67
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.16
Wall Street Target
$141.52
(+9.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-31.5%
Profit Margin
17.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
39.2 vs 37.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$131.12
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$132.96
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$134.82
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39→38)
PE COMPRESSION
$129.10
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.2, Growth: -3.4%)
$116.39
(+-10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: -3.4%)
$65.21
(-50%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: -3.4%)
$55.43
(-57%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (39x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.30
Bull Case
$143.49
(+11%)
Analyst growth 0.1%, PE expands to 43.5
Base Case
$130.44
(+1%)
Market implied 0.1%, PE stable at 39.5
Bear Case
$88.64
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 10, 2026 1:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amber Fairbanks
SELL
711 shares
2026-04-06
Aubrey Clay Holder
SELL
145 shares
2026-04-06
Timothy Argo
SELL
183 shares
2026-04-06
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Advanced MAA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MAA price and gamma walls.
