MRTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRTN - Marten Transport Ltd
$12.30
-0.39 (-3.07%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MRTN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MRTN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.18
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.15
6.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRTN is currently trading at $12.30, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.73 to $12.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 29.2) compared to its historical average (38.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRTN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRTN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$11.73 -
$12.77
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MRTN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.73 -
$12.77
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.10
Resistance Level
$13.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.17
Wall Street Target
$13.50
(+6.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.7%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
29.2 vs 38.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.59
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$10.58
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$9.66
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→38)
$12.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.2, Growth: 58.2%)
$42.83
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 58.2%)
$32.74
(+158%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 58.2%)
$27.83
(+119%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (52x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 51.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.24
Bull Case
$24.84
(+102%)
Analyst growth 81.3%, PE expands to 57.1
Base Case
$22.58
(+84%)
Market implied 81.3%, PE stable at 51.9
Bear Case
$8.47
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 44.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.2 to 38.3
Stabilization Target:
$16.66
(+31.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MRTN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MRTN price and gamma walls.
