MSA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSA - Mine Safety Incorporated
$177.15
-1.11 (-0.62%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MSA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MSA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$238.20
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$147.90
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSA is currently trading at $177.15, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $165.27 to $181.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.7) is in line with its historical norms (19.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSA is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $174.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSA is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $174.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$165.27 -
$181.52
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($189.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$165.27 -
$181.52
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.96
(3.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$174.56
Resistance Level
$185.54
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.68
Wall Street Target
$189.50
(+6.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Profit Margin
15.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
20.7 vs 19.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$181.83
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$185.46
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$189.17
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$178.34
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.5%)
$259.41
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.5%)
$240.61
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 10.5%)
$204.52
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.10
Bull Case
$234.71
(+33%)
Analyst growth 21.4%, PE expands to 27.2
Base Case
$213.37
(+20%)
Market implied 21.4%, PE stable at 24.8
Bear Case
$119.53
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2025-09-22
Stephanie L Sciullo
SELL
2361 shares
2025-09-12
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-21
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