MSA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSA - Mine Safety Incorporated
$160.69
-4.57 (-2.77%)
▼
5d:
-7.41%
30d:
-17.77%
90d:
-1.93%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Get Alerted When MSA Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MSA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$256.15
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$159.05
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSA is currently trading at $160.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $171.98 to $194.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.9) compared to its historical average (19.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSA is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $162.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $212.43 (+32.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSA is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $162.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $212.43 (+32.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$171.98 -
$194.10
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
6th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 6th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.2% below Wall St target ($212.43)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.4% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$171.98 -
$194.10
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.93
(3.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$162.85
Resistance Level
$179.49
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.93
Wall Street Target
$212.43
(+32.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.4%
Profit Margin
14.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.9 vs 19.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$152.49
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$144.72
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$137.34
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→20)
$160.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.8%)
$272.92
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 8.8%)
$206.71
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 8.8%)
$175.70
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.09
Bull Case
$250.58
(+44%)
Analyst growth 33.9%, PE expands to 26.4
Base Case
$227.80
(+31%)
Market implied 33.9%, PE stable at 24.0
Bear Case
$115.70
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.9 to 19.8
Stabilization Target:
$187.96
(+17.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:18 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MSA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jonathan D Buck
SELL
1100 shares
2026-02-17
Jonathan D Buck
SELL
333 shares
2025-11-25
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2025-11-20
Top Rated Security & Protection Services Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Security & Protection Services by analyst ratings.
