MSBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSBI - Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$30.35
-1.02 (-3.25%)
▼
5d:
-0.52%
30d:
+8.78%
90d:
+32.88%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MSBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MSBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.08
Based on -27.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.54
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSBI is currently trading at $30.35, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.13 to $30.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.7) compared to its historical average (8.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $29.54. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: MSBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $29.54. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: MSBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$28.13 -
$30.51
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($28.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.1% growth with 14.3% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.13 -
$30.51
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.07
Resistance Level
$29.54
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.68
Wall Street Target
$28.25
(-6.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.2%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.1% premium
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 8.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.90
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$33.52
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$35.23
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$30.20
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -58.7%)
$67.06
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: -58.7%)
$29.82
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: -58.7%)
$25.35
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.20
Bull Case
$69.01
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 28.8
Base Case
$62.74
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.1
Bear Case
$21.33
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kyle Owen Mooney
SELL
2808 shares
2026-01-28
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