MSBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSBI - Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$26.55
-0.49 (-1.81%)
▼
5d:
-6.22%
30d:
+12.74%
90d:
+15.59%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSBI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MSBI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.40
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.68
13.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSBI is currently trading at $26.55, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.61 to $26.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$23.61 -
$26.96
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($26.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.6% growth with 14.3% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.61 -
$26.96
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.83
Resistance Level
$28.53
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.48
Wall Street Target
$26.25
(-1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.2%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 8.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.97
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$27.41
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$27.84
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.61
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 38.5%)
$69.92
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 38.5%)
$26.86
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 38.5%)
$22.83
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.20
Bull Case
$57.88
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.1
Base Case
$52.62
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.9
Bear Case
$17.89
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Kyle Owen Mooney
SELL
2808 shares
2026-01-28
Daniel Edward Casey
BUY
5000 shares
2025-12-03
Jeffrey C Smith
BUY
500 shares
2025-12-03
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