MSDL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSDL - Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund
$15.70
-0.50 (-3.12%)
▼
5d:
-3.36%
30d:
-4.76%
90d:
-6.69%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSDL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MSDL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.95
Based on -2.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.28
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSDL is currently trading at $15.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.19 to $16.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSDL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: MSDL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSDL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: MSDL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$16.19 -
$16.78
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.54)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.19 -
$16.78
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.68
Resistance Level
$16.72
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.73
Wall Street Target
$17.54
(+8.2%)
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.01
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$15.81
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$15.62
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$16.11
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -8.2%)
$31.97
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: -8.2%)
$12.51
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: -8.2%)
$10.64
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.65
Bull Case
$20.08
(+24%)
Analyst growth 12.5%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$18.26
(+13%)
Market implied 12.5%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$11.04
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$16.71
(+3.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.1%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 10:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSDL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Joan Binstock
BUY
9030 shares
2025-10-06
Adam S Metz
BUY
28248 shares
2025-08-13
David N Miller
BUY
10000 shares
2025-08-12
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