MT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MT - ArcelorMittal
$53.97
-1.82 (-3.26%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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1 traders called MT this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MT trades at premium valuation expecting 5.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MT trades at premium valuation expecting 5.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$91.81
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.01
5.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MT is currently trading at $53.97, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.54 to $52.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.0) compared to its historical average (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.35, while resistance sits at $56.93. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: MT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $49.62. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.35, while resistance sits at $56.93. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: MT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $49.62. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$45.54 -
$52.71
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading 11.1% above Wall St target ($49.62)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.6% growth which is achievable
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$45.54 -
$52.71
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.35
Resistance Level
$56.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.01
Wall Street Target
$49.62
(-11.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.8%
Profit Margin
4.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.6% premium
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 9.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.91
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$62.21
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$65.70
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$55.52
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 31.7%)
$257.98
(+362%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 31.7%)
$127.31
(+128%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 31.7%)
$107.59
(+93%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.40
Bull Case
$91.91
(+70%)
Analyst growth 49.1%, PE expands to 18.1
Base Case
$83.56
(+55%)
Market implied 49.1%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$38.11
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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