GGB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GGB - Gerdau S.A.
$4.67
0.07 (1.52%)
▲
5d:
-2.91%
30d:
+8.6%
90d:
+15.31%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GGB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GGB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.17
9.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GGB is currently trading at $4.67, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.13 to $4.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.6) is in line with its historical norms (1.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.49, while resistance sits at $4.98.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.49, while resistance sits at $4.98.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$4.13 -
$4.71
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($5.02)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.13 -
$4.71
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.49
Resistance Level
$4.98
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.61
Wall Street Target
$5.02
(+9.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.9%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
1.6 vs 1.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.70
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$4.80
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$4.90
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.55
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 74.2%)
$64.30
(+1298%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.6, Growth: 74.2%)
$4.70
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.4, Growth: 74.2%)
$4.00
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.17
Bull Case
$10.01
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.4
Base Case
$9.10
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.8
Bear Case
$3.09
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 10:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GGB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chia Yuan Wang
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-10
Mauricio Metz
SELL
1000 shares
2026-04-10
Marcos Eduardo Fara Wahr…
SELL
12419 shares
2026-04-09
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