MTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTN - Vail Resorts, Inc.
$121.56
0.13 (0.11%)
▲
5d:
-3.08%
30d:
-5.99%
90d:
-9.5%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MTN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$244.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$151.82
19.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTN is currently trading at $121.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $122.07 to $129.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.3) is in line with its historical norms (17.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $119.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MTN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $155.42 (+27.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $119.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MTN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $155.42 (+27.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$122.07 -
$129.99
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.9% below Wall St target ($155.42)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$122.07 -
$129.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$119.90
Resistance Level
$127.20
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.33
Wall Street Target
$155.42
(+27.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.1%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.3 vs 17.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$120.34
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$119.14
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$117.95
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$121.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 46.5%)
$487.02
(+301%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 46.5%)
$382.43
(+215%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 46.5%)
$325.07
(+167%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.28
Bull Case
$149.19
(+23%)
Analyst growth 11.7%, PE expands to 21.3
Base Case
$135.63
(+12%)
Market implied 11.7%, PE stable at 19.3
Bear Case
$82.57
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.3 to 17.9
Stabilization Target:
$125.56
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Angela A Korch
BUY
190 shares
2026-03-16
Robert A Katz
BUY
37500 shares
2026-03-16
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