MUSA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUSA - MURPHY USA INC.
$494.82
0.85 (0.17%)
▲
5d:
+3.66%
30d:
+20.68%
90d:
+22.05%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MUSA is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MUSA is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$572.02
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$355.18
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUSA is currently trading at $494.82, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $408.06 to $483.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.5) compared to its historical average (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $447.47, while resistance sits at $509.90.
Market Sentiment: MUSA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $441.56. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $447.47, while resistance sits at $509.90.
Market Sentiment: MUSA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $441.56. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$408.06 -
$483.38
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 10.8% above Wall St target ($441.56)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$408.06 -
$483.38
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$447.47
Resistance Level
$509.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.46
Wall Street Target
$441.56
(-10.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
18.5 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$517.58
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$541.39
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$566.29
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$494.01
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.6%)
$746.09
(+51%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.5, Growth: 7.6%)
$616.10
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.7, Growth: 7.6%)
$523.68
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $24.08
Bull Case
$573.31
(+25%)
Analyst growth 10.1%, PE expands to 21.6
Base Case
$521.19
(+14%)
Market implied 10.1%, PE stable at 19.7
Bear Case
$321.76
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 8:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUSA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott G Woodward
SELL
137 shares
2026-03-05
Keith A Emery
SELL
899 shares
2026-02-26
Jeanne Linder Phillips
SELL
1155 shares
2026-02-24
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