MUSA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUSA - MURPHY USA INC.
$422.51
3.38 (0.81%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MUSA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MUSA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$562.16
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$349.06
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUSA is currently trading at $422.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $410.73 to $437.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.3) is in line with its historical norms (16.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $407.62, while resistance sits at $447.13.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $407.62, while resistance sits at $447.13.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$410.73 -
$437.19
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($439.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$410.73 -
$437.19
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$21.09
(5.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$407.62
Resistance Level
$447.13
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.33
Wall Street Target
$439.00
(+4.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.1%
Profit Margin
2.8%
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 16.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$419.13
(0%)
2-Year Target
$419.13
(0%)
3-Year Target
$419.13
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$418.31
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.2%)
$723.95
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 8.2%)
$530.21
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 8.2%)
$450.68
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $23.58
Bull Case
$504.89
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.8%, PE expands to 19.7
Base Case
$458.99
(+9%)
Market implied 8.8%, PE stable at 17.9
Bear Case
$286.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:31 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUSA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Malynda K West
SELL
1859 shares
2025-08-12
Robert Madison Murphy
BUY
5000 shares
2025-08-05
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Advanced MUSA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MUSA price and gamma walls.
