NBIX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NBIX - Neurocrine Biosciences Inc
$136.06
-1.90 (-1.38%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NBIX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NBIX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$273.85
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$170.04
20.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NBIX is currently trading at $136.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $133.36 to $142.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 64.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBIX is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $138.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $179.26 (+29.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBIX is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $138.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $179.26 (+29.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$133.36 -
$142.62
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
37th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 37th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.9% below Wall St target ($179.26)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$133.36 -
$142.62
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.37
(6.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$129.17
Resistance Level
$138.74
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.01
Wall Street Target
$179.26
(+29.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
64.5%
Profit Margin
16.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.0 vs 15.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$136.99
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$136.04
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$135.08
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$137.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 34.0%)
$492.86
(+257%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 34.0%)
$331.74
(+141%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 34.0%)
$281.98
(+104%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.19
Bull Case
$294.56
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 35.2
Base Case
$267.78
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 32.0
Bear Case
$91.05
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$140.63
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NBIX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Charles Gorman
SELL
106322 shares
2025-08-07
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Advanced NBIX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NBIX price and gamma walls.
