NGD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGD - New Gold Inc.
$10.03
-2.07 (-17.11%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NGD trades at premium valuation expecting 9.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: NGD trades at premium valuation expecting 9.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.28
11.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGD is currently trading at $10.03, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.96 to $11.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.5) compared to its historical average (8.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 17.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $9.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 17.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $9.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$8.96 -
$11.72
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NGD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-17.1%)
- BEARISH: Trading 25.6% above Wall St target ($9.00)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 9.1% growth expectation is conservative given 275% recent growth
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-21.9%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.96 -
$11.72
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.10
Resistance Level
$13.63
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.51
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(-25.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
83.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
275.0%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 8.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.20
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$14.40
(+19%)
3-Year Target
$15.71
(+30%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.11
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 87.0%)
$86.68
(+616%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 87.0%)
$40.84
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 87.0%)
$31.48
(+160%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.32
Bull Case
$22.90
(+128%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 35.8
Base Case
$20.82
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$7.08
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 PM
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