NGD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGD - New Gold Inc.
$9.08
-0.39 (-4.12%)
▼
5d:
-15.3%
30d:
-19.07%
90d:
+10.19%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Get Alerted When NGD Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NGD is down 15.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NGD is down 15.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.25
25.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGD is currently trading at $9.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.28 to $12.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.9) compared to its historical average (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 275.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.46, while resistance sits at $11.87. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.46, while resistance sits at $11.87. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$10.28 -
$12.60
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($9.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -15.3% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.28 -
$12.60
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.67
(7.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.46
Resistance Level
$11.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 19, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.88
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(-0.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
83.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
275.0%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 8.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.73
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$8.40
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$8.08
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$9.02
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 87.0%)
$86.99
(+858%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 87.0%)
$30.64
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 87.0%)
$26.05
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.32
Bull Case
$22.90
(+152%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 35.8
Base Case
$20.82
(+129%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$7.08
(-22%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$10.13
(+11.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 3:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is NGD showing a specific setup today?
Top Rated Gold Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Gold by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
AEM
Agnico Eagle Mines Limit… |
STRONG BUY
20 analysts |
$256 | 50 HOLD |
|
B
Barrick Mining Corporati… |
BUY
22 analysts |
$57 | 51 HOLD |
|
NEM
Newmont Goldcorp Corp |
BUY
20 analysts |
$142 | 57 HOLD |
|
WPM
Wheaton Precious Metals … |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$192 | 52 HOLD |
|
AGI
Alamos Gold Inc |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$61 | 54 HOLD |
