NGG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGG - National Grid PLC
$80.64
-6.79 (-7.77%)
▼
5d:
-7.19%
30d:
-7.86%
90d:
-12.73%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NGG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NGG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$143.40
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$89.04
9.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGG is currently trading at $80.64, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.49 to $89.15. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.2) is in line with its historical norms (14.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $79.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: NGG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.05 (+14.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $79.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: NGG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.05 (+14.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$85.49 -
$89.15
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($92.05)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.2%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.49 -
$89.15
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.70
Resistance Level
$88.63
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.17
Wall Street Target
$92.05
(+14.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
18.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 14.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.30
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$76.03
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$73.83
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$80.74
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 16.6%)
$214.16
(+166%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 16.6%)
$127.77
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 16.6%)
$108.60
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.04
Bull Case
$134.61
(+67%)
Analyst growth 51.6%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$122.37
(+52%)
Market implied 51.6%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$54.89
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 14.4
Stabilization Target:
$88.19
(+9.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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