NGG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGG - National Grid PLC
$82.85
2.67 (3.33%)
▲
5d:
-0.68%
30d:
+2.74%
90d:
-4.59%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NGG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NGG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$141.40
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.80
5.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGG is currently trading at $82.85, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.16 to $83.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.5) is in line with its historical norms (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $79.69, while resistance sits at $86.35. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: NGG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $79.69, while resistance sits at $86.35. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: NGG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$80.16 -
$83.86
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($90.95)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.16 -
$83.86
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.70
Resistance Level
$86.35
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.53
Wall Street Target
$90.95
(+9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
18.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 14.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.61
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$80.38
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$79.18
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$83.11
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.6%)
$211.35
(+155%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 16.6%)
$131.27
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 16.6%)
$111.58
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.32
Bull Case
$125.04
(+51%)
Analyst growth 41.8%, PE expands to 20.4
Base Case
$113.67
(+37%)
Market implied 41.8%, PE stable at 18.6
Bear Case
$54.52
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.5 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$86.97
(+5.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 8:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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