NLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NLY - Annaly Capital Management. Inc.
$23.01
-0.99 (-4.12%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
11d
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1 traders called NLY this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.55
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.66
16.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NLY is currently trading at $23.01, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.90 to $23.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.1) is in line with its historical norms (7.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$22.90 -
$23.92
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($23.52)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$22.90 -
$23.92
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.93
Resistance Level
$24.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.08
Wall Street Target
$23.52
(-2.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
297.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2393.8%
Profit Margin
85.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 7.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.41
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$24.82
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$25.24
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.06
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 30.0%)
$145.56
(+507%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 30.0%)
$52.72
(+120%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 30.0%)
$44.82
(+87%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.26
Bull Case
$35.23
(+47%)
Analyst growth 31.5%, PE expands to 11.9
Base Case
$32.03
(+33%)
Market implied 31.5%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case
$16.56
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced NLY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NLY price and gamma walls.
