AOMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOMR - Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.
$9.04
0.01 (0.11%)
▲
5d:
+3.55%
30d:
+9.58%
90d:
+10.92%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AOMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AOMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.13
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.39
3.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOMR is currently trading at $9.04, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.17 to $8.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.5) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $9.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AOMR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.75 (+18.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $9.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AOMR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.75 (+18.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$8.17 -
$8.82
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($10.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.8% growth with -60.6% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.17 -
$8.82
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.43
Resistance Level
$9.15
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.48
Wall Street Target
$10.75
(+18.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-60.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.3%
Profit Margin
45.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
6.5 vs 6.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.11
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$9.19
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$9.26
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.00
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.2%)
$51.51
(+470%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.5, Growth: 19.2%)
$15.33
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: 19.2%)
$13.03
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.63
Bull Case
$19.87
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.8
Base Case
$18.06
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$6.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 8:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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