AOMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOMR - Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.
$8.28
-0.03 (-0.36%)
▼
5d:
-2.59%
30d:
-9.61%
90d:
-9.41%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AOMR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AOMR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.46
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.98
7.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOMR is currently trading at $8.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.59 to $9.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.0) is in line with its historical norms (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $8.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.45 (+38.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOMR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $8.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.45 (+38.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.59 -
$9.12
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.3% below Wall St target ($11.45)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.59 -
$9.12
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.26
Resistance Level
$9.11
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.04
Wall Street Target
$11.45
(+38.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-60.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.3%
Profit Margin
45.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.0 vs 6.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.13
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$7.98
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$7.84
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$8.31
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 17.2%)
$48.81
(+490%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.0, Growth: 17.2%)
$13.33
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.1, Growth: 17.2%)
$11.33
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.63
Bull Case
$18.28
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$16.62
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$5.65
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.0 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$8.78
(+6.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 19, 2026 5:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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