NMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMR - Nomura Holdings, Inc
$8.87
-0.43 (-4.62%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.46
Based on -3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.63
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMR is currently trading at $8.87, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.52 to $9.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$8.52 -
$9.20
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($8.98)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.8% growth with 6.6% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.52 -
$9.20
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.83
Resistance Level
$9.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.42
Wall Street Target
$8.98
(-3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.5%
Profit Margin
18.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.37
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$9.45
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$9.52
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.28
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -11.3%)
$12.17
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: -11.3%)
$6.78
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: -11.3%)
$5.76
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.79
Bull Case
$9.49
(+7%)
Analyst growth -5.2%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$8.63
(-3%)
Market implied -5.2%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$6.19
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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