NMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMR - Nomura Holdings, Inc
$7.62
0.04 (0.53%)
▲
5d:
-2.56%
30d:
-15.33%
90d:
-9.39%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 24, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NMR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NMR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.12
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.42
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMR is currently trading at $7.62, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.53 to $8.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.37 (+23.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.37 (+23.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$7.53 -
$8.94
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.6% below Wall St target ($9.37)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.53 -
$8.94
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.48
Resistance Level
$8.09
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.17
Wall Street Target
$9.37
(+23.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Profit Margin
17.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 11.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.31
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$7.04
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$6.79
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$7.61
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -10.7%)
$12.17
(+61%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: -10.7%)
$5.53
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: -10.7%)
$4.70
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.74
Bull Case
$8.36
(+7%)
Analyst growth 0.7%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$7.60
(-3%)
Market implied 0.7%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$5.13
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 11.4
Stabilization Target:
$8.50
(+12.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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