NOAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOAH - Noah Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares (each representing five (5) Ordinary shares)
$11.86
-0.04 (-0.34%)
▼
5d:
+1.63%
30d:
+16.73%
90d:
+4.49%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOAH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOAH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.39
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.80
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOAH is currently trading at $11.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.49 to $11.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.1) is in line with its historical norms (1.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NOAH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.66 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NOAH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.66 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$10.49 -
$11.61
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($13.66)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.5% growth with 2.2% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.49 -
$11.61
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.93
(7.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.12
Resistance Level
$12.18
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.07
Wall Street Target
$13.66
(+15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.8%
Profit Margin
22.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
1.1 vs 1.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.04
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$12.22
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$12.40
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.56
(-3%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 15.1%)
$375.94
(+3070%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.1, Growth: 15.1%)
$18.08
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.9, Growth: 15.1%)
$15.37
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.14
Bull Case
$24.35
(+105%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$22.14
(+87%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$7.53
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 9:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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