NOAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOAH - Noah Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares (each representing five (5) Ordinary shares)
$9.96
0.06 (0.61%)
▲
5d:
-12.09%
30d:
-12.09%
90d:
-1.97%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 31, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NOAH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NOAH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.39
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.80
7.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOAH is currently trading at $9.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.65 to $12.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 0.9) is in line with its historical norms (1.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOAH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.66 (+37.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOAH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.66 (+37.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$10.65 -
$12.01
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.1% below Wall St target ($13.66)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-12.1%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.65 -
$12.01
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.19
(11.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.75
Resistance Level
$11.68
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.90
Wall Street Target
$13.66
(+37.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.8%
Profit Margin
22.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.9 vs 1.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.49
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$9.05
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$8.62
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$9.57
(-4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.1%)
$376.78
(+3683%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.9, Growth: 15.1%)
$15.19
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.8, Growth: 15.1%)
$12.91
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.14
Bull Case
$24.35
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$22.14
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$7.53
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.9 to 1.0
Stabilization Target:
$11.06
(+11.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 6:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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