NOC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOC - Northrop Grumman Corp.
$692.26
-3.09 (-0.44%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
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3 traders called NOC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NOC is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NOC is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$883.04
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$548.30
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOC is currently trading at $692.26, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $579.21 to $656.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.5) is in line with its historical norms (20.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $705.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NOC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $705.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NOC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$579.21 -
$656.41
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
NOC is technically overbought (RSI 72). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.5% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($699.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$579.21 -
$656.41
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$636.00
Resistance Level
$705.45
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.47
Wall Street Target
$699.25
(+0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Profit Margin
10.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
22.5 vs 20.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$714.12
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$733.41
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$753.21
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$693.78
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.5, Growth: 9.3%)
$909.15
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.3%)
$902.15
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 9.3%)
$766.82
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $29.08
Bull Case
$806.57
(+17%)
Analyst growth 6.4%, PE expands to 26.1
Base Case
$733.24
(+6%)
Market implied 6.4%, PE stable at 23.7
Bear Case
$468.61
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2025-09-05
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