NP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NP - Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.
$23.53
0.09 (0.41%)
▲
5d:
+5.92%
30d:
+11.33%
90d:
-22.18%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.78
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.87
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NP is currently trading at $23.52, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.17 to $22.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 37.3) compared to its historical average (46.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.52, while resistance sits at $24.73.
Market Sentiment: NP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.79 (+14.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.52, while resistance sits at $24.73.
Market Sentiment: NP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.79 (+14.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$20.17 -
$22.92
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($26.79)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$20.17 -
$22.92
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.53
Resistance Level
$24.73
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.28
Wall Street Target
$26.79
(+14.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
38.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.4%
Profit Margin
23.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
37.3 vs 46.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.79
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$20.26
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$18.85
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 37→46)
$23.41
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.3, Growth: 22.1%)
$42.64
(+82%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 22.1%)
$25.56
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 22.1%)
$21.73
(-7%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 37.3 to 46.3
Stabilization Target:
$29.10
(+24.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 11:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Trevor R Burgess
BUY
50000 shares
2026-03-13
Michael Warren Vostrizan…
BUY
23000 shares
2026-02-20
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