NPB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

NPB - Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.

STATE COMMERCIAL BANKS
$17.12
0.00 (0.00%) ▲
5d: -3.71%
30d: -7.46%
90d: -2.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026 0d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NPB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.43
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.79
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: NPB is currently trading at $17.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.28 to $18.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.7) is in line with its historical norms (6.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 24.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, NPB is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $16.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: NPB has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.08 (+23.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $17.28 - $18.58
Company Quality Score 57/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 57.1%

All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 23.2% below Wall St target ($21.08)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $17.28 - $18.58
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $16.88
Resistance Level $17.91
Current Trend Sideways
Technical data as of May 15, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 5.74
Wall Street Target $21.08 (+23.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 27.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 24.2%
Profit Margin 35.1%
Valuation Discount vs History -1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical 5.7 vs 6.0 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -1.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $16.86 (-2%)
2-Year Target $16.61 (-3%)
3-Year Target $16.36 (-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 6→6) $17.11 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.6%) $89.14 (+421%)
Base: (SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 10.6%) $23.18 (+35%)
Bear: (PE: 4.9, Growth: 10.6%) $19.70 (+15%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.24
Bull Case $25.08 (+47%)
Analyst growth 33.2%, PE expands to 8.4
Base Case $22.80 (+33%)
Market implied 33.2%, PE stable at 7.6
Bear Case $11.64 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 6.0
Stabilization Target: $17.90 (+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential: +4.6%
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Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:43 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Technical Signals Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard Jeffery Dean SELL 57619 shares 2026-03-09
Charles Alan Williams BUY 23450 shares 2026-02-12
Charles Alan Williams BUY 14205 shares 2026-02-11

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