NPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPK - National Presto Industries, Inc.
$136.37
3.89 (2.94%)
▲
5d:
+2.5%
30d:
+1.39%
90d:
+26.34%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NPK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NPK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.15
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.45
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPK is currently trading at $136.37, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $130.50 to $138.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 152.3) is in line with its historical norms (138.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$130.50 -
$138.94
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 85.7% above Wall St target ($18.93)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.2% growth with 21.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$130.50 -
$138.94
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$128.19
Resistance Level
$139.94
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
152.28
Wall Street Target
$18.93
(-85.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.8%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
152.3 vs 138.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$136.72
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$141.09
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$145.61
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 152→139)
PE COMPRESSION
$132.63
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 152.3, Growth: 17.6%)
$215.28
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.6%)
$31.60
(-76%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 17.6%)
$26.86
(-80%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 28.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.63
Bull Case
$71.31
(-47%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 30.8
Base Case
$64.83
(-52%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 28.0
Bear Case
$88.16
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 12:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Randy F Lieble
SELL
2417 shares
2026-03-11
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