NPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPK - National Presto Industries, Inc.
$127.40
2.05 (1.64%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 13, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NPK trades at premium valuation expecting 5.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: NPK trades at premium valuation expecting 5.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.15
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.45
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPK is currently trading at $127.40, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $109.93 to $122.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 146.4) compared to its historical average (125.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $127.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NPK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $127.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NPK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$109.93 -
$122.56
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
NPK is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 85.1% above Wall St target ($18.93)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.3% growth with 25.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$109.93 -
$122.56
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.53
Resistance Level
$127.57
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
146.44
Wall Street Target
$18.93
(-85.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.4%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.3% premium
PE vs Historical
146.4 vs 125.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$134.15
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$141.26
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$148.75
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 146→126)
PE COMPRESSION
$127.58
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 146.4, Growth: 17.6%)
$207.03
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 17.6%)
$31.53
(-75%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 17.6%)
$26.80
(-79%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 22.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.43
Bull Case
$67.16
(-47%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$61.05
(-52%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$83.03
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced NPK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NPK price and gamma walls.
