NREF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NREF - NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc.
$14.77
-0.21 (-1.40%)
▼
5d:
+1.03%
30d:
+3.58%
90d:
+11.14%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NREF is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NREF is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.76
Based on -11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.82
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NREF is currently trading at $14.77, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.06 to $14.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.7) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NREF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NREF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Implied Volatility is high (72th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NREF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NREF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Implied Volatility is high (72th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$14.06 -
$14.72
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
72th percentile
(EVENT RISK)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Options expensive (IV 72th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($14.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$14.06 -
$14.72
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.50
(10.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.13
Resistance Level
$15.08
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.69
Wall Street Target
$14.50
(-1.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
95.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
54.6%
Profit Margin
63.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.92
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$15.07
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$15.22
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.84
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -26.0%)
$42.48
(+188%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: -26.0%)
$14.66
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: -26.0%)
$12.46
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.91
Bull Case
$10.53
(-29%)
Analyst growth -34.0%, PE expands to 5.5
Base Case
$9.57
(-35%)
Market implied -34.0%, PE stable at 5.0
Bear Case
$9.87
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 02, 2026 9:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NREF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James D Dondero
BUY
66000 shares
2025-09-22
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