NREF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NREF - NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc.
$13.47
0.08 (0.64%)
▲
5d:
+2.47%
30d:
-9.02%
90d:
-3.55%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NREF is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NREF is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.94
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.28
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NREF is currently trading at $13.46, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.25 to $14.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.8) is in line with its historical norms (7.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NREF is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $13.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NREF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NREF is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $13.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NREF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$13.25 -
$14.70
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($14.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.25 -
$14.70
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.72
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.60
Resistance Level
$13.81
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.76
Wall Street Target
$14.50
(+8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
39.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
108.5%
Profit Margin
63.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 7.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.46
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$13.54
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$13.62
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.35
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 1.3%)
$40.05
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 1.3%)
$13.90
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 1.3%)
$11.81
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.91
Bull Case
$8.46
(-36%)
Analyst growth -40.7%, PE expands to 4.9
Base Case
$7.69
(-42%)
Market implied -40.7%, PE stable at 4.5
Bear Case
$8.82
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 10:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NREF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian Mitts
SELL
11904 shares
2025-12-18
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