NRG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NRG - NRG Energy, Inc.
$152.63
-1.09 (-0.71%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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2 traders called NRG this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NRG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NRG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$291.09
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$180.74
15.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NRG is currently trading at $152.63, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $149.17 to $159.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.8) is in line with its historical norms (16.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 56.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NRG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $145.52, while resistance sits at $157.50.
Market Sentiment: NRG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $201.04 (+30.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NRG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $145.52, while resistance sits at $157.50.
Market Sentiment: NRG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $201.04 (+30.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$149.17 -
$159.97
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.8% below Wall St target ($201.04)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$149.17 -
$159.97
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$145.52
Resistance Level
$157.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.83
Wall Street Target
$201.04
(+30.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
56.3%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 16.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$151.57
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$149.45
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$147.35
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$153.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 21.7%)
$390.47
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 21.7%)
$277.10
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 21.7%)
$235.53
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.69
Bull Case
$247.74
(+62%)
Analyst growth 45.2%, PE expands to 25.5
Base Case
$225.22
(+48%)
Market implied 45.2%, PE stable at 23.2
Bear Case
$105.48
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.8 to 16.5
Stabilization Target:
$160.28
(+4.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.3%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Dak Liyanearachchi
SELL
10672 shares
2025-09-10
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