NVAX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVAX - Novavax Inc
$8.85
-0.59 (-6.30%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
26d
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16 traders called NVAX this week
96% bullish • 1 bearish
96% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVAX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVAX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$0.15
Based on -41.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.10
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVAX is currently trading at $8.85, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.92 to $9.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 34.2) is in line with its historical norms (36.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVAX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.73, while resistance sits at $10.20. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: NVAX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.89 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVAX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.73, while resistance sits at $10.20. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: NVAX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.89 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$6.92 -
$9.09
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 36.5% below Wall St target ($12.89)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6.92 -
$9.09
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.73
Resistance Level
$10.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.23
Wall Street Target
$12.89
(+36.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-38.1%
Profit Margin
32.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
34.2 vs 36.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.22
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$9.01
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$8.80
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→37)
$9.44
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.2, Growth: -87.2%)
$6.88
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -87.2%)
$4.48
(-53%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -87.2%)
$3.81
(-60%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.01
Bull Case
$5.40
(-43%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 5.4
Base Case
$4.91
(-48%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 4.9
Bear Case
$6.68
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 34.2 to 36.7
Stabilization Target:
$10.12
(+7.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.2%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVAX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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