NXST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NXST - Nexstar Media Group, Inc. Common Stock
$197.30
1.33 (0.68%)
▲
5d:
+1.43%
30d:
+0.36%
90d:
-16.14%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NXST appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.3% annual earnings decline despite 51% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NXST appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.3% annual earnings decline despite 51% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$116.73
Based on -12.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NXST is currently trading at $197.30, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $189.70 to $205.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $191.12, while resistance sits at $211.11.
Market Sentiment: NXST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $251.62 (+27.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXST is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $191.12, while resistance sits at $211.11.
Market Sentiment: NXST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $251.62 (+27.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$189.70 -
$205.70
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.5% below Wall St target ($251.62)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$189.70 -
$205.70
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$191.12
Resistance Level
$211.11
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.15
Wall Street Target
$251.63
(+27.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.0%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 9.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$184.87
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$173.22
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$162.31
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$197.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: -29.2%)
$388.89
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: -29.2%)
$143.83
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: -29.2%)
$122.26
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.72
Bull Case
$431.13
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.7
Base Case
$391.94
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.5
Bear Case
$133.26
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 9.9
Stabilization Target:
$239.62
(+21.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NXST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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