OBDC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBDC - Blue Owl Capital Corporation
$12.00
-0.15 (-1.23%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: OBDC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: OBDC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.71
Based on -2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.65
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBDC is currently trading at $12.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.30 to $12.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OBDC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.50 (+19.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBDC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OBDC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.50 (+19.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$12.30 -
$12.70
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding OBDC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($14.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$12.30 -
$12.70
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.96
Resistance Level
$12.77
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.73
Wall Street Target
$14.50
(+19.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.7%
Profit Margin
36.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.06
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$11.98
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$11.90
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$12.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -9.5%)
$23.04
(+90%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: -9.5%)
$9.02
(-26%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: -9.5%)
$7.67
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$13.47
(+11%)
Analyst growth -0.2%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$12.25
(+1%)
Market implied -0.2%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$8.34
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$12.39
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBDC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced OBDC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OBDC price and gamma walls.
