OLLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OLLI - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$91.24
-0.80 (-0.87%)
▼
5d:
+0.25%
30d:
-11.9%
90d:
-16.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 25, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When OLLI Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: OLLI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: OLLI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$181.02
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.40
18.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OLLI is currently trading at $91.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $94.66 to $108.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.1) compared to its historical average (25.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $88.44, while resistance sits at $102.06.
Market Sentiment: OLLI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.60 (+51.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OLLI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $88.44, while resistance sits at $102.06.
Market Sentiment: OLLI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.60 (+51.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$94.66 -
$108.41
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.9% below Wall St target ($138.60)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$94.66 -
$108.41
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$88.44
Resistance Level
$102.06
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.13
Wall Street Target
$138.60
(+51.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.6%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.1 vs 25.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.21
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$77.73
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$71.74
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→26)
$91.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.8%)
$157.37
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 15.8%)
$141.73
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 15.8%)
$120.47
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.89
Bull Case
$126.84
(+34%)
Analyst growth 16.5%, PE expands to 28.0
Base Case
$115.31
(+22%)
Market implied 16.5%, PE stable at 25.4
Bear Case
$67.29
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.1 to 25.6
Stabilization Target:
$116.04
(+27.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:19 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is OLLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John W Swygert
SELL
1126 shares
2026-02-09
Alissa M Ahlman
SELL
29 shares
2025-12-23
Robert F Helm
SELL
367 shares
2025-10-23
Top Rated Discount Stores Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Discount Stores by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WMT
Walmart Inc. Common Stock |
STRONG BUY
43 analysts |
$136 | 59 HOLD |
|
COST
Costco Wholesale Corp |
BUY
38 analysts |
$1067 | 64 BUY |
|
DG
Dollar General Corporati… |
HOLD
31 analysts |
$149 | 54 HOLD |
|
TGT
Target Corporation |
SELL
37 analysts |
$125 | 63 BUY |
|
DLTR
Dollar Tree Inc |
HOLD
27 analysts |
$125 | 58 HOLD |
