OMAB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OMAB - Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte S.A.B. de C.V
$112.33
-1.51 (-1.33%)
▼
5d:
+3.23%
30d:
-8.05%
90d:
-0.44%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OMAB trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OMAB trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$190.94
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118.56
5.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OMAB is currently trading at $112.33, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $107.66 to $123.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (13.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMAB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $106.53, while resistance sits at $122.50.
Market Sentiment: OMAB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMAB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $106.53, while resistance sits at $122.50.
Market Sentiment: OMAB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$107.66 -
$123.74
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
4th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 4th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($124.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$107.66 -
$123.74
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.90
(4.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$106.53
Resistance Level
$122.51
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.76
Wall Street Target
$124.33
(+9.2%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.6%
Profit Margin
33.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 13.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.26
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$102.96
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$97.91
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$114.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.2%)
$297.72
(+162%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 11.2%)
$156.37
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 11.2%)
$132.91
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.19
Bull Case
$186.88
(+72%)
Analyst growth 56.3%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$169.89
(+56%)
Market implied 56.3%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$73.90
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 13.7
Stabilization Target:
$132.57
(+16.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OMAB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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