ASR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASR - Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S.A. de C.V. American Depositary Shares
$301.14
-4.07 (-1.33%)
▼
5d:
-3.56%
30d:
-12.08%
90d:
-18.61%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$519.50
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$322.57
6.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASR is currently trading at $301.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $304.36 to $339.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.0) compared to its historical average (13.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $298.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.69 (+22.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $298.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.69 (+22.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$304.36 -
$339.61
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.8% below Wall St target ($369.69)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$304.36 -
$339.61
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$298.00
Resistance Level
$315.06
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.01
Wall Street Target
$369.69
(+22.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.0%
Profit Margin
26.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 13.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$286.69
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$272.92
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$259.82
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$300.76
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 12.7%)
$791.97
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 12.7%)
$431.48
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 12.7%)
$366.76
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.95
Bull Case
$445.94
(+48%)
Analyst growth 32.3%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$405.40
(+35%)
Market implied 32.3%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$208.30
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 13.9
Stabilization Target:
$348.59
(+15.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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