ON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ON - ON Semiconductor Corp
$59.89
-2.31 (-3.71%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 09, 2026
8d
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1 traders called ON this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.48
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.98
11.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ON is currently trading at $59.89, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.29 to $62.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.2) compared to its historical average (19.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ON is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $59.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ON is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $59.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$56.29 -
$62.57
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($63.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.4% growth with -12.0% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$56.29 -
$62.57
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.15
Resistance Level
$66.86
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.24
Wall Street Target
$63.00
(+1.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
21.2 vs 19.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.31
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$66.50
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$68.76
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$62.15
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 25.0%)
$127.51
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.2, Growth: 25.0%)
$121.47
(+95%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.1, Growth: 25.0%)
$103.25
(+66%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.74 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.75
Bull Case
$72.32
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.8
Base Case
$59.89
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$45.82
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Hassane El-Khoury
SELL
15000 shares
2025-08-13
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ON price and gamma walls.
