ON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ON - ON Semiconductor Corp
$61.32
5.66 (10.17%)
▲
5d:
-1.64%
30d:
-7.76%
90d:
+13.51%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$141.90
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.11
30.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ON is currently trading at $61.32, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.96 to $66.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.8) compared to its historical average (18.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $55.02, while resistance sits at $64.35. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 10.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: ON has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.21 (+20.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ON is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $55.02, while resistance sits at $64.35. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 10.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: ON has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.21 (+20.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$57.96 -
$66.19
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+10.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.7% below Wall St target ($67.21)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$57.96 -
$66.19
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.03
Resistance Level
$64.35
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.83
Wall Street Target
$67.21
(+20.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.7%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 18.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.87
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$46.50
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$42.50
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→18)
$55.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 38.1%)
$237.23
(+326%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 38.1%)
$146.75
(+164%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 38.1%)
$124.74
(+124%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 20.45 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.93
Bull Case
$72.32
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 21.5
Base Case
$59.89
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 20.5
Bear Case
$45.82
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 18.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.8 to 18.1
Stabilization Target:
$72.87
(+30.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sudhir Gopalswamy
SELL
6114 shares
2026-03-13
Hassane El-Khoury
SELL
20000 shares
2026-02-12
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SELL
60000 shares
2026-02-12
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Advanced ON Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ON price and gamma walls.
