ORC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORC - Orchid Island Capital, Inc.
$7.80
-0.47 (-5.68%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
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1 traders called ORC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ORC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ORC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.14
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.40
17.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORC is currently trading at $7.80, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.35 to $8.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.5) is in line with its historical norms (7.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$7.35 -
$8.16
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.7%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($7.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.35 -
$8.16
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.92
Resistance Level
$8.40
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.55
Wall Street Target
$7.50
(-9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
259.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
120.9%
Profit Margin
76.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 7.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.45
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$8.64
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$8.83
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.30
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 59.9%)
$82.41
(+897%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 59.9%)
$27.91
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 59.9%)
$23.72
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.52
Bull Case
$18.30
(+135%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.6
Base Case
$16.64
(+113%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.0
Bear Case
$5.66
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 11:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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