ORI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORI - Old Republic International Corporation
$39.90
-0.03 (-0.08%)
▼
5d:
+1.79%
30d:
-7.38%
90d:
-13.93%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ORI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ORI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.84
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.81
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORI is currently trading at $39.90, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.32 to $42.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 95.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$39.32 -
$42.32
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($42.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$39.32 -
$42.32
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.46
Resistance Level
$40.31
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.45
Wall Street Target
$42.50
(+6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
95.7%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.22
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$38.55
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$37.90
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$39.70
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 5.6%)
$91.56
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 5.6%)
$46.92
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 5.6%)
$39.89
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.72
Bull Case
$39.05
(+2%)
Analyst growth -6.4%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$35.50
(-7%)
Market implied -6.4%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$25.78
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.5 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$41.80
(+4.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 6:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:04 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Eric Smith
BUY
1135 shares
2026-03-02
Carolyn Monroe
SELL
5526 shares
2026-02-02
Carolyn Monroe
SELL
6680 shares
2025-11-14
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