PAGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAGS - PagSeguro Digital Ltd.
$8.81
-0.20 (-2.22%)
▼
5d:
-12.69%
30d:
-23.92%
90d:
-16.49%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
5d
Smart Money Distribution
PAGS is up 3.9% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $9 2026-06-18 with 234 OI. Put ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.1/10
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1 traders called PAGS this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PAGS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PAGS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.49
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.62
8.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAGS is currently trading at $8.81, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.69 to $11.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.9) compared to its historical average (1.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAGS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAGS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.49 (+38.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAGS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAGS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.49 (+38.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.69 -
$11.02
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAGS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.6% below Wall St target ($12.49)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-12.7%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.69 -
$11.02
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.60
Resistance Level
$10.48
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.92
Wall Street Target
$12.49
(+38.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.5%
Profit Margin
10.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.9 vs 1.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.39
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$7.81
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$7.27
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$8.68
(-4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 11.2%)
$296.45
(+3190%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.9, Growth: 11.2%)
$12.39
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.8, Growth: 11.2%)
$10.53
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.45
Bull Case
$18.99
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 6.6
Base Case
$17.26
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 6.0
Bear Case
$5.87
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.9 to 1.1
Stabilization Target:
$10.76
(+19.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Alexandre Mr Magnani
SELL
200000 shares
2026-04-17
Luis Frias
BUY
498500 shares
2026-03-27
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Advanced PAGS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAGS price and gamma walls.