PARR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PARR - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$62.64
-1.26 (-1.97%)
▼
5d:
+1.52%
30d:
+35.94%
90d:
+76.85%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PARR trades at premium valuation expecting 8.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: PARR trades at premium valuation expecting 8.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.79
Based on -14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.53
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PARR is currently trading at $62.64, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.03 to $60.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.6) compared to its historical average (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $53.24, while resistance sits at $66.75.
Market Sentiment: PARR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $54.62. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $53.24, while resistance sits at $66.75.
Market Sentiment: PARR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $54.62. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$44.03 -
$60.00
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 12.8% above Wall St target ($54.62)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 8.3% growth expectation is conservative given 3869% recent growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$44.03 -
$60.00
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.24
Resistance Level
$66.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.59
Wall Street Target
$54.63
(-12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3869.2%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.3% premium
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 10.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.84
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$73.47
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$79.57
(+27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$62.63
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -32.2%)
$75.08
(+20%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: -32.2%)
$45.66
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: -32.2%)
$35.95
(-43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.16
Bull Case
$37.96
(-34%)
Analyst growth -43.8%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$34.51
(-40%)
Market implied -43.8%, PE stable at 8.6
Bear Case
$41.75
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 6:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William Monteleone
SELL
108948 shares
2026-03-16
William Monteleone
SELL
99284 shares
2025-11-21
Richard Creamer
SELL
15848 shares
2025-11-06
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