PATK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PATK - Patrick Industries Inc
$105.96
-1.43 (-1.33%)
▼
5d:
-5.1%
30d:
-14.4%
90d:
-5.44%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PATK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PATK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$225.69
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$140.14
24.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PATK is currently trading at $105.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $109.72 to $126.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.7) compared to its historical average (20.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 92.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $106.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PATK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.20 (+27.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PATK is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $106.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PATK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.20 (+27.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$109.72 -
$126.43
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.8% below Wall St target ($137.20)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.1%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$109.72 -
$126.43
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.43
(5.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$106.68
Resistance Level
$116.62
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.72
Wall Street Target
$137.20
(+27.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
92.3%
Profit Margin
3.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 20.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$100.09
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$93.28
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$86.94
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→21)
$107.09
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 18.8%)
$241.45
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 18.8%)
$180.27
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 18.8%)
$153.23
(+43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.90
Bull Case
$195.98
(+76%)
Analyst growth 64.6%, PE expands to 30.5
Base Case
$178.17
(+60%)
Market implied 64.6%, PE stable at 27.8
Bear Case
$73.58
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.7 to 20.6
Stabilization Target:
$132.28
(+23.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is PATK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
4
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
M Scott Welch
BUY
10000 shares
2026-03-12
Hugo E Gonzalez
SELL
13514 shares
2026-03-12
M Scott Welch
BUY
50 shares
2026-03-06
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