HOG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc.
$25.65
0.05 (0.20%)
▲
5d:
+8.5%
30d:
+12.2%
90d:
+30.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HOG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HOG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.23
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.22
2.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOG is currently trading at $25.65, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.31 to $24.80. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.2) compared to its historical average (12.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.01, while resistance sits at $26.99.
Market Sentiment: HOG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.01, while resistance sits at $26.99.
Market Sentiment: HOG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.31 -
$24.80
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.65)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.9% growth with -11.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.31 -
$24.80
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.01
Resistance Level
$26.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.19
Wall Street Target
$24.65
(-3.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-79.4%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.9% premium
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 12.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.16
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$28.77
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$30.46
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.75
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 350.8%)
$134.42
(+424%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 350.8%)
$86.57
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 350.8%)
$73.19
(+185%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.93
Bull Case
$26.37
(+3%)
Analyst growth -6.4%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$23.97
(-7%)
Market implied -6.4%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$17.41
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 7:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-03-12
Rafeh Masood
BUY
2775 shares
2026-02-27
James D Farley Jr
SELL
6454 shares
2026-02-25
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