HOG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc.
$24.96
0.81 (3.35%)
▲
5d:
-1.96%
30d:
+1.34%
90d:
+22.77%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HOG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HOG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.30
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.51
9.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOG is currently trading at $24.96, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.16 to $25.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.44, while resistance sits at $25.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.44, while resistance sits at $25.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$24.16 -
$25.54
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.64)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.2% growth with -11.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.16 -
$25.54
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.44
Resistance Level
$25.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.50
Wall Street Target
$25.64
(+2.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-79.4%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.76
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$26.58
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$27.43
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.00
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 380.1%)
$135.94
(+445%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 380.1%)
$84.24
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 380.1%)
$71.60
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.93
Bull Case
$25.46
(+2%)
Analyst growth -4.2%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$23.14
(-7%)
Market implied -4.2%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$16.42
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-03-12
Rafeh Masood
BUY
2775 shares
2026-02-27
James D Farley Jr
SELL
6454 shares
2026-02-25
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