PAYX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAYX - Paychex Inc
$91.27
0.36 (0.39%)
▲
5d:
-2.48%
30d:
-4.72%
90d:
-18.64%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 25, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
PAYX is up 8.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $95 2026-04-17 with 2,412 OI. Put ratio: 67% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAYX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAYX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$140.14
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.02
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYX is currently trading at $91.27, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $90.43 to $95.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.4) compared to its historical average (18.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $89.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.80 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $89.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.80 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$90.43 -
$95.96
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($102.80)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$90.43 -
$95.96
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$89.01
Resistance Level
$96.24
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.40
Wall Street Target
$102.80
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Profit Margin
25.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 18.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.36
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$82.05
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$77.94
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$91.10
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.4%)
$163.45
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 7.4%)
$112.63
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 7.4%)
$95.74
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.42
Bull Case
$136.07
(+46%)
Analyst growth 33.7%, PE expands to 23.0
Base Case
$123.70
(+32%)
Market implied 33.7%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case
$62.93
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 18.0
Stabilization Target:
$106.25
(+16.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 2:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAYX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
April McClain Delaney
SELL
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
April McClain Delaney
SELL
2026-02-23
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Advanced PAYX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYX price and gamma walls.
