PAYX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAYX - Paychex Inc
$93.12
1.44 (1.57%)
▲
5d:
-0.41%
30d:
-0.57%
90d:
-18.45%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 25, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
PAYX is up 8.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $95 2026-04-17 with 2,412 OI. Put ratio: 67% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAYX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAYX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$140.14
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.02
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYX is currently trading at $93.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $90.49 to $96.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.8) compared to its historical average (18.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $89.01, while resistance sits at $96.24.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.80 (+10.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $89.01, while resistance sits at $96.24.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.80 (+10.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$90.49 -
$96.06
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($102.80)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$90.49 -
$96.06
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$89.01
Resistance Level
$96.24
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.78
Wall Street Target
$102.80
(+10.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Profit Margin
25.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 18.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$89.12
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$85.28
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$81.62
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$93.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.4%)
$163.45
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 7.4%)
$115.37
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 7.4%)
$98.07
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.42
Bull Case
$136.07
(+46%)
Analyst growth 33.7%, PE expands to 23.0
Base Case
$123.70
(+32%)
Market implied 33.7%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case
$62.93
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.8 to 18.0
Stabilization Target:
$106.25
(+14.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAYX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
April McClain Delaney
SELL
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
April McClain Delaney
SELL
2026-02-23
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Advanced PAYX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYX price and gamma walls.
