PAYX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAYX - Paychex Inc
$103.13
0.90 (0.88%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 25, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAYX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAYX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$157.02
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$97.49
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYX is currently trading at $103.13, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $106.09 to $113.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.4) compared to its historical average (20.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $101.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.20 (+16.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $101.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.20 (+16.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$106.09 -
$113.78
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($120.20)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$106.09 -
$113.78
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$101.05
Resistance Level
$111.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.45
Wall Street Target
$120.20
(+16.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.5%
Profit Margin
26.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 20.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$98.59
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$94.25
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$90.11
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→20)
$103.28
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.7%)
$164.65
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: 7.7%)
$128.83
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: 7.7%)
$109.51
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.42
Bull Case
$150.70
(+46%)
Analyst growth 33.7%, PE expands to 25.5
Base Case
$137.00
(+33%)
Market implied 33.7%, PE stable at 23.2
Bear Case
$69.67
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.4 to 20.0
Stabilization Target:
$118.21
(+14.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.6%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 8:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAYX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-29
Julie Johnson
SELL
2025-09-25
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-05
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYX price and gamma walls.
