PCTY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCTY - Paylocity Holding Corporation Common Stock
$106.14
0.96 (0.91%)
▲
5d:
-4.4%
30d:
-7.29%
90d:
-30.4%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Get Alerted When PCTY Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PCTY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PCTY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$182.47
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$113.30
6.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCTY is currently trading at $106.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $106.44 to $114.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.7) compared to its historical average (16.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 133.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PCTY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.33 (+58.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCTY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PCTY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.33 (+58.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$106.44 -
$114.67
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 58.6% below Wall St target ($168.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$106.44 -
$114.67
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.80
(7.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$103.36
Resistance Level
$116.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.72
Wall Street Target
$168.33
(+58.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
133.3%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 16.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$97.33
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$89.25
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$81.84
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→17)
$106.18
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 7.6%)
$213.73
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 7.6%)
$132.15
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 7.6%)
$112.33
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.25
Bull Case
$242.80
(+111%)
Analyst growth 96.2%, PE expands to 29.1
Base Case
$220.72
(+92%)
Market implied 96.2%, PE stable at 26.5
Bear Case
$76.51
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.7 to 16.5
Stabilization Target:
$137.69
(+29.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 04, 2026 9:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:16 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is PCTY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew Cappotelli
SELL
69 shares
2025-12-04
Ryan Glenn
SELL
1737 shares
2025-11-19
Top Rated Software - Application Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Software - Application by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
INTU
Intuit Inc |
STRONG BUY
34 analysts |
$610 | 56 HOLD |
|
GRAB
Grab Holdings Ltd |
STRONG BUY
27 analysts |
$6 | 60 HOLD |
|
ESTC
Elastic NV |
STRONG BUY
30 analysts |
$82 | 59 HOLD |
|
TEAM
Atlassian Corp Plc |
STRONG BUY
33 analysts |
$172 | 52 HOLD |
|
SNOW
Snowflake Inc. |
STRONG BUY
50 analysts |
$240 | 53 HOLD |
