PFGC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PFGC - Performance Food Group Company
$84.27
1.26 (1.52%)
▲
5d:
+1.31%
30d:
-13.18%
90d:
-8.16%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PFGC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PFGC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$173.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$107.68
21.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PFGC is currently trading at $84.27, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.03 to $94.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.2) is in line with its historical norms (15.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 44.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFGC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $80.82, while resistance sits at $88.25.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.50 (+39.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFGC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $80.82, while resistance sits at $88.25.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.50 (+39.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$84.03 -
$94.40
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.4% below Wall St target ($117.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$84.03 -
$94.40
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$80.82
Resistance Level
$88.25
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.19
Wall Street Target
$117.50
(+39.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.4%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 15.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.84
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$81.43
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$80.04
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$84.59
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 28.3%)
$280.08
(+232%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 28.3%)
$177.87
(+111%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 28.3%)
$151.19
(+79%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.21
Bull Case
$178.27
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 40.3
Base Case
$162.06
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 36.7
Bear Case
$55.10
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 15.0
Stabilization Target:
$89.06
(+5.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 6:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PFGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chasity D Grosh
SELL
1843 shares
2026-02-10
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-10-31
Lisa C. McClain
BUY
2025-10-30
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