PFGC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PFGC - Performance Food Group Company
$95.45
-2.71 (-2.76%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PFGC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PFGC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$179.64
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$111.54
14.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PFGC is currently trading at $95.45, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $89.23 to $96.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.6) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFGC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $92.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PFGC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.69 (+21.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFGC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $92.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PFGC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.69 (+21.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$89.23 -
$96.00
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.9% below Wall St target ($119.69)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.1% growth with 10.8% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$89.23 -
$96.00
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.63
Resistance Level
$98.17
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.64
Wall Street Target
$119.69
(+21.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.0%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$100.22
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$102.33
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$104.47
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$98.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 25.9%)
$279.41
(+185%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 25.9%)
$195.99
(+100%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 25.9%)
$166.59
(+70%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.09
Bull Case
$214.24
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 51.3
Base Case
$194.76
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.6
Bear Case
$66.22
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 5:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PFGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erika T Davis
SELL
4100 shares
2025-09-02
Hugh Patrick Hatcher
SELL
5000 shares
2025-09-02
A Brent King
SELL
6334 shares
2025-09-02
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