CHEF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHEF - The Chef's Warehouse Inc
$80.93
-0.25 (-0.31%)
▼
5d:
-0.95%
30d:
+28.5%
90d:
+18.25%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
CHEF is up 19.5% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $50 2026-07-17 with 363 OI. Put ratio: 97% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHEF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHEF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$103.01
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHEF is currently trading at $80.93, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.10 to $78.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 31.5) compared to its historical average (28.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $82.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHEF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $82.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHEF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$63.10 -
$78.73
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
Protect Your Profits
CHEF is technically overbought (RSI 70). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($84.88)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$63.10 -
$78.73
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.74
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.37
Resistance Level
$82.81
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.47
Wall Street Target
$84.88
(+4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
61.4%
Profit Margin
1.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.9% premium
PE vs Historical
31.5 vs 28.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.35
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$87.64
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$91.05
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→28)
PE COMPRESSION
$81.29
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.5, Growth: 15.8%)
$125.97
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 15.8%)
$88.21
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 15.8%)
$74.98
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.83
Bull Case
$124.81
(+54%)
Analyst growth 40.9%, PE expands to 48.4
Base Case
$113.46
(+40%)
Market implied 40.9%, PE stable at 44.0
Bear Case
$54.74
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 1:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher Pappas
SELL
95908 shares
2026-03-03
Christina Polychroni
SELL
3317 shares
2026-03-02
Alexandros Aldous
SELL
29500 shares
2026-02-27
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